Run your rentals before they run you. Rental arbitrage deal analyzer for STR operators leasing units to sublet on Airbnb. Lease math, stress test, MTR fallback. Excel. Read this first. Rental arbitrage is legal only when your lease permits subletting AND your jurisdiction permits short-term rentals. If your lease says no sublet, or your city’s STR registry is closed, the math doesn’t matter — the deal is illegal. This workbook flips the verdict to PASS automatically when either flag is missing. Consult an attorney before signing any master-lease agreement. Now the math. The reason most arbitrage units fail is not Year 1. It is Year 2, when the landlord raises the rent 7 to 10 percent at renewal and the operator has $14,800 of furniture in a unit that no longer cash flows. This analyzer stress-tests against that exact scenario before you sign. WHAT’S INCLUDED Excel workbook (8 tabs): - Start — verdict at a glance. Y1 cash flow, stabilized cash flow, stress test result, MTR fallback indicator. One headline: DEAL or PASS. - Lease Terms — rent, deposit, term, sublet permission, STR-zone status, renewal escalator. The deal-killers live here. - Setup Costs — 80-line furnishing list, low/mid/high columns. Smaller fork of the Cost-to-Launch list (no major appliances when landlord-provided). - Revenue Projection — paste ADR and occupancy from AirDNA. Y1 occupancy auto-defaults to 60 percent of stabilized because Year 1 arbitrage is harder than owned. - Operating Math — monthly cash flow with rent, utilities, internet, software, cleaning per turnover, supplies, marketing, insurance, platform commission. - Stress Test — three scenarios: base, stabilized plus 5 percent escalator, worst case (7 percent escalator + 10pp occupancy stress + 15 percent supplies inflation). Each returns a verdict. - MTR Fallback — if STR fails, can mid-term rental rents (Furnished Finder benchmark) cover the lease? The Plan B that separates real operators from gurus. - Landlord Pitch Page — printable one-page master-lease proposal. White-label friendly. No STR Ledger branding on this tab — add your own. Lease-restriction guard: if Sublet = No or STR-zone = No, Verdict flips to PASS before any other math runs.
Related
- Break-even Occupancy Calculator
- STR vs LTR Yield Comparison
- 3-Property Side-by-Side Comparison
- License/Permit/STR-Reg Tracker
- Cleaning Fee Optimizer
What's inside
- Operators evaluating a master-lease unit for STR or MTR sublet
- Existing hosts considering arbitrage as Property #2 alongside an owned property
- Co-host or property managers offering arbitrage as a service to landlords
- Anyone who watched a YouTube guru claim arbitrage is no-money-down and wants the actual cash deployment number
- Operators whose target lease prohibits subletting. The math will not save you.
- Markets with closed STR registries. Verify city ordinance first.
- Co-living or room-by-room arbitrage. Different model — out of scope.
Get the workbook
Format: Excel .xlsx + how-to PDF. Excel 2016+, Excel 365, Google Sheets compatible. Instant download after checkout. 14-day refund, no questions. Lifetime updates within v1.